With just seven days to the March 31 recapitalisation deadline set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), uncertainty continues to surround the capital positions of several Tier II banks, raising concerns across the financial system.
While Nigeria’s banking sector has made significant progress in meeting the new capital thresholds, a handful of institutions remains without clear or verified recapitalisation pathways, leaving investors and customers on edge.
Data released by Proshare for the week ended March 19 shows that 30 out of 37 tracked banks have met or exceeded the revised capital requirements, with over N4.05 trillion raised in the process. However, the status of a few Tier II and national licence banks remains unresolved.
Banks such as Polaris Bank Limited, Keystone Bank Limited, and Union Bank of Nigeria Plc have yet to publicly disclose definitive recapitalisation strategies or confirm their final capital standings.
Industry analysts warn that the lack of transparency could heighten market volatility in the final days leading to the deadline, especially if regulatory interventions become necessary.
“These are systemically important institutions within their segments. Any delay or uncertainty in their recapitalisation plans creates ripple effects for market confidence,” a Lagos-based financial analyst said.
The proposed merger between Unity Bank Plc and Providus Bank Limited remains a key unresolved issue in the recapitalisation exercise.
The transaction, which is expected to produce a stronger national licence bank, is currently entangled in legal proceedings, with the next court hearing scheduled for March 24, 2026. Analysts say any further delays could compress timelines for regulatory approval before the deadline.
Despite the lingering uncertainties, the broader banking sector has achieved a major milestone. Verified capital raised has surpassed N4.05 trillion, making the exercise one of the most significant in Nigeria’s financial history.
Domestic investors contributed 71.67 percent of the total capital raised, while foreign participation accounted for 28.33 percent, reflecting sustained international confidence in the sector.
Tier-one institutions, including Access Holdings Plc, First Bank of Nigeria Holdings Plc, and Zenith Bank Plc, have emerged strongly capitalised, each significantly exceeding the N500 billion requirement for international banking licences.
Trust Holding Company Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, and Fidelity Bank Plc also recorded successful capital raises, buoyed by strong investor demand and high subscription levels.
As the deadline approaches, regulatory focus is shifting from capital compliance to resilience. The CBN has directed banks to commence stress testing from April 1, 2026, to assess their ability to withstand adverse economic scenarios.
Analysts note that banks with minimal buffers above the regulatory threshold may face supervisory pressure if stress tests reveal vulnerabilities in capital adequacy.
The stress scenarios are expected to incorporate external risks, including the geopolitical impact of the ongoing Iran conflict, particularly its implications for oil prices and fuel import costs.
Market observers say the final week of the recapitalisation programme will be decisive in determining the structure of Nigeria’s banking industry going forward.
Key areas to watch include the resolution of pending legal cases, clarity on the capital positions of unresolved banks, and regulatory responses from the CBN.
Although the recapitalisation exercise has largely been successful, analysts caution that the real test lies ahead—how effectively banks deploy their expanded capital bases to support economic growth while maintaining profitability and stability.
As the countdown to March 31 continues, the fate of a few Tier II banks remains uncertain, setting the stage for what could be a defining moment in Nigeria’s banking sector evolution
