The events unfolding ahead of the 2027 general election are beginning to raise serious questions about the neutrality and intentions of Nigeria’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). What may appear ordinary on the surface increasingly looks like a carefully coordinated political strategy designed to shape public perception long before Nigerians step into polling units.
The recent release of political party membership figures by Independent National Electoral Commission has sparked fresh suspicion among opposition supporters, especially members of the National Democratic Coalition and supporters of Peter Obi.
For years, INEC never publicly displayed verified membership figures of political parties on its website. Suddenly, immediately after the controversial APC presidential primary that allegedly produced an unbelievable 10,999,162 votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, INEC hurriedly published party membership statistics. The timing has naturally triggered suspicion.
According to the figures released:
APC — 12,897,723 members
PDP — 2,487,000 members
ADC — 1,655,890 members
LP — 1,300,390 members
NDC — 700,789 members
To many observers, this publication was not accidental. It appears designed to retroactively justify the massive figures announced during the APC presidential primary — figures that many Nigerians considered unrealistic and heavily manipulated.
What further deepens concern is the legal controversy surrounding party membership registration. A Federal High Court had reportedly restrained INEC from enforcing a controversial provision requiring political parties to conclude membership registration over 120 days before an election. Critics argued that the clause was unconstitutional and deliberately crafted to weaken opposition parties by limiting their ability to expand their support base closer to the elections.
Yet, despite that court ruling still standing, INEC reportedly proceeded to appeal the judgement and simultaneously released membership data as though the restriction was already operational and settled.
This sequence of events raises troubling questions.
Why the urgency? Why now? Why publish party membership figures immediately after public outrage over the APC primary results?
To many opposition voices, the answer is simple: perception management.
If Nigerians are repeatedly told that APC has nearly 13 million registered members while opposition parties possess significantly lower figures, it becomes easier to psychologically prepare the public for inflated future election results. In such a scenario, any massive victory announced for the ruling party could later be defended using these same membership statistics as “evidence” of electoral popularity.
This is where many believe the real target emerges — Peter Obi and the growing opposition movement.
The fear among critics is that the groundwork is already being laid to normalize future election outcomes before voting even begins. If opposition parties are portrayed as weak and unpopular through officially endorsed statistics, then any controversial election result in 2027 could be strategically defended as consistent with existing party strength.
Whether these fears are justified or not, one fact remains undeniable: public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process is fragile. Actions that appear politically selective or legally questionable only deepen distrust in democratic institutions.
INEC must understand that transparency alone is not enough; timing, consistency, and impartiality matter just as much. In a country already battling electoral skepticism, every action taken by the electoral body will be heavily scrutinized.
As 2027 approaches, Nigerians will be watching closely — not just the politicians, but also the referees of the democratic process.
By: Godwin Offor
