The Archbishop Emeritus of Abuja, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, has warned that voter turnout in the 2027 general elections could suffer significantly if Nigerians believe the outcome is predetermined in favour of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Speaking on Monday during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State Onaiyekan warned that any perception that the ruling party is guaranteed victory would discourage voter participation and ultimately weaken the legitimacy of the government that emerges from the polls.
“My fear is that if it becomes very clear to Nigerians that no matter what happens, the APC will win, then most people won’t even bother to go to the election. And even if the government, the real power wins, it will not bring a real victory actually. And it is not going to be possible to deliver good government,” he said.
The Cardinal said restoring public confidence in the electoral process was essential to improving governance, insisting that democracy can only thrive where elections are genuinely free, fair and credible.
According to him, voter apathy in recent elections reflects a growing distrust in the electoral system, a situation he said must be urgently addressed before the next general election.
He said: “Genuine democracy is built on free and fair elections. Any democracy that cannot do free, fair, and credible election cannot come up with good governance. Elections have consequences…Bad elections lead to bad governance and bad governance leads to misery among the people.”
The cleric maintained that Nigeria has yet to conduct a truly free and fair election, linking low voter turnout to widespread public disillusionment with the electoral process.
“I think it is in our interest and the government who has all the powers, to please make sure that the trust of the people in the electoral process is restored, so that we can get at least 50% of Nigerians voting. If the electoral field is seen to be fair and equal for everybody, then people will know that their votes will count” he said.
Onaiyekan explained that unlike during military rule, elected governments derive their legitimacy from the people and must therefore remain accountable to them through periodic elections.
“When we were under military regime, we didn’t talk about elections and the military boys who were ruling us, they didn’t claim to be ruling in our name. Now we are with the democracy, and the rulers say that they are ruling in our name. We can’t keep quiet when people claiming to be working in our name are not.”
Drawing comparisons with established democracies such as the United Kingdom, the Cardinal argued that regular alternation of power strengthens democratic institutions and national development.
“It is the rule of democracy everywhere. You will notice that, for example, in England, you will find that there are only two major parties. The conservatives will rule for the four years they have there. When election comes, they have a rough time winning the election again, and generally they lose and the Labour takes over and right now the Labour is the power in England, and the conservatives are preparing to take over next time. And when that happens, the nation moves”, he explained.
Responding to remarks that the President had defended the neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Onaiyekan argued that credible elections involve much more than the electoral umpire alone.
He stressed that the conduct of security agencies during elections also significantly influences electoral credibility.
“Even if INEC is neutral, as you know, the election outcome is also affected by the activities and the performance of the security agents who claim to be securing the election, but who often end up intimidating people with sirens all over the place, which doesn’t happen in decent democracies”.
The Cardinal also renewed his call for comprehensive electoral reforms, particularly regarding the appointment of INEC leadership.
“We are also talking about why it’s always difficult for INEC to even perform well, with all good intentions. The rules that guide these activities, there is a lot of room for improvement. We have been talking about reforming the electoral rules”
He further argued that strengthening the independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is critical to ensuring credible elections. He maintained that the current process for appointing the electoral body’s leadership raises concerns about impartiality and should be reviewed to reinforce public confidence in the electoral system.
“We know that the government in power appoints the INEC. We have to figure a way out of that because if the government in power appoints the INEC, then It’s difficult to have a fair game. Unless you have a very strong chairman of INEC who decides to stand up against all pressures”
Speaking on the forthcoming August 15 Osun State governorship election, where he recently led the National Peace Committee in facilitating the signing of a peace accord by participating political parties, Onaiyekan admitted that such agreements have often failed to prevent violence but said they remain necessary moral commitments.
“From the very beginning, the very first attempt at signing these accords that the National Peace Committee has always engaged in, it has always been an act of faith. Mainly, you just hope that what you are doing will make sense but every time we have been disappointed because the actual reality on ground goes contrary to the accord that they signed.”
The cardinal also cited the unique political configuration in the state and allegations of intimidation among the major contenders stating that such developments underscore the need for restraint and a peaceful electoral environment.
“The governor is in a small party called Accord Party, but he has the advantage to gather a good rallying of people around him. The APC government that is in power in the center is also flexing its muscles and there are accusations and counter accusations of intimidation, which should not be.”
He appealed to political actors to allow voters exercise their democratic rights peacefully while reminding politicians that public service, not the acquisition of power, should be the essence of politics.
“We are only praying and hoping that at least it will allow peace to reign and allow the poor people to do their voting while the politicians will hold their gun and not destroy the whole situation because of their own political ambitions” he said.
