Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths over the next six months as El Niño intensifies, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The report projects 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region, with nearly half expected in Nigeria.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have warned that an unusually powerful El Niño could worsen extreme heat, droughts and flooding.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could peak towards the end of 2026, disrupting temperatures and rainfall patterns worldwide.
She urged governments and humanitarian organisations to use forecasts and early-warning systems to protect vulnerable communities.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that about 50 million people could face increased hunger as the crisis worsens food insecurity.
He said the African Development Bank estimates that the crisis could cost African countries between 10 billion and 20 billion dollars and reduce their GDP by one to two per cent.
The Climate Impact Lab projects that El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally during its first nine months, from June to February, with countries in the Global South expected to bear a disproportionate burden.
In Nigeria, temperatures have recently reached 41 degrees Celsius in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34 degrees Celsius in Lagos, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).
Prolonged extreme heat could increase heat-related illnesses, strain water and electricity supplies, and threaten farming and outdoor livelihoods.
The report recommends early-warning systems, cooling centres and protection for outdoor workers to reduce deaths.
Although El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, human-induced climate change is worsening the risks associated with rising temperatures.
Saulo said its effects could not be prevented entirely, but the worst consequences could be reduced through timely action and coordinated preparedness.
