Nigeria’s revenue projections for 2025 may be affected by the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook which forecasts energy prices to drop by 17 percent this year and additional fall of six percent in 2026.
The report states that prices of Brent crude oil are expected to average just $64 a barrel in 2025—a decline of $17 from 2024—and just $60 in 2026.
According to the report, food prices are also expected to recede, falling by seven percent in 2025 and an additional one percent in 2026.
“Energy prices are expected to decrease by 17 percent this year to the lowest level in five years before dropping an additional six percent in 2026. Prices of Brent crude oil are expected to average just $64 a barrel in 2025—a decline of $17 from 2024—and just $60 in 2026. Coal prices are expected to drop by 27 percent this year and an additional five percent in 2026, as the growth of coal consumption for power generation in developing economies slows.
That outlook reflects expectations for weaker economic growth as well as a long-term slowdown in global oil demand. In 2025, the global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 0.7 million barrels per day.
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles has also curbed demand for oil: in China, the world’s largest automobile market, more than 40 percent of new cars purchased last year were either battery-powered or hybrid vehicles. That is close to three times the share in 2021.
“Food prices are also expected to recede, falling by seven percent in 2025 and an additional one percent in 2026. Even so, the United Nations estimates that acute food insecurity in some of the worst-hit areas globally will intensify this year, affecting 170 million people across 22 highly vulnerable economies. Falling food commodity prices should provide some support to humanitarian efforts, particularly amid shrinking humanitarian funding. But it will not address the underlying drivers of acute hunger, which are largely rooted in conflict,” said the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The report noted that the average price of gold-a popular choice for investors seeking “safe haven”-is expected to set a new record this year before stabilising in 2026.
Gold holds a special status among assets, often rising in price during periods of geopolitical and policy uncertainty, including conflicts.
Over the next two years, gold prices are expected to remain about 150 percent higher than the average in the five years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.
In contrast, the price of industrial metals is expected to drop in 2025-26, as demand weakens amid mounting trade tensions and persistently soft activity in China’s property sector.
A special focus section of the report finds that boom-and-bust cycles in commodity prices have become particularly intense in the 2020s. Such pronounced cycles can hurt both fiscal discipline and long-term economic growth in these economies.
Since 1970, the average length of these cycles has lasted about four years—with busts lasting somewhat longer than booms, the analysis finds. Between 2020 and 2024, however, the duration has halved.
According to the report, faltering economic growth is coinciding with ample oil supply in ways that are expected to drop global commodity prices to their lowest level of the 2020s.
