Analysts warn that Israel may be laying the groundwork for renewed military confrontation with Iran, amid reports of covert operations and increasing diplomatic tensions.
Israel’s leadership is said to be viewing its recent 12-day war with Iran as a tactical success. Key Iranian military leaders were killed, and critical elements of Iran’s defence infrastructure were weakened. The conflict also drew in support from the United States, which participated in a strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site.
Despite declaring victory, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that military action remains on the table. “We have no intention of easing off the gas pedal,” he stated in a post-war address. Observers believe Israel is now actively seeking an opportunity to launch a fresh round of strikes aimed at destabilising Iran’s government and military capabilities.
However, such a move would require support or at least tacit approval from Washington, which may not be forthcoming at this time.
The war, initiated in mid-June by a surprise Israeli offensive, resulted in over 1,000 Iranian and 29 Israeli fatalities. Israel claimed the attack was preemptive and intended to disable Iran’s nuclear programme—one Tehran has consistently described as being for peaceful purposes.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has since expressed scepticism over the durability of the current ceasefire. “We are fully prepared for any new Israeli military move, and our armed forces are ready to strike deep inside Israel again,” he warned.
Strategic Aims
Though Israel framed the war as a response to nuclear threats, many of its attacks focused on assassinating senior Iranian political and military figures. This, analysts suggest, indicates a broader aim: weakening the Islamic Republic from within.
Some experts argue that Israeli leadership, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, seeks to reduce Iran to the status of countries like Syria or Lebanon—targets Israel has struck repeatedly and with little international consequence.
The next flashpoint may arise if European powers reimpose sanctions on Iran, especially if no new nuclear agreement is reached by the end of August. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly discussed such measures with leaders from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The reimposition of United Nations Security Council sanctions, originally lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, could lead Iran to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty—potentially giving Israel the political cover to act again.
To justify any renewed offensive, Israel would likely need to present credible intelligence indicating that Iran is restoring its nuclear capabilities. However, analysts believe that gaining formal backing from the United States, especially under the current administration, may prove difficult due to concerns over Israeli military actions in Syria and elsewhere.
While another full-scale war may not be imminent, there are increasing reports of covert Israeli operations inside Iran. Recent unexplained explosions and fires at various locations—including apartment complexes, oil refineries, and industrial facilities—have been attributed by some sources to Israeli sabotage efforts.
Experts note that Israel’s deep infiltration of Iranian infrastructure and intelligence networks was evident during the recent war. Operations included drone strikes and targeted assassinations within Iranian territory, allegedly conducted with the help of internal operatives.
Security analysts believe these covert efforts are ongoing and serve both strategic and tactical purposes. Once assets are placed within a foreign country, they argue, their window of usefulness is limited, prompting operators to act swiftly and repeatedly to maintain pressure and visibility.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, once considered cautious in his military approach, has in recent months demonstrated a marked shift—launching attacks across multiple fronts, including Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, and Iran.
With domestic dissent growing over Israel’s war on Gaza, another strike against Iran could be used to rally internal support. Analysts suggest that while Israeli society is divided over Gaza, there is broad consensus on opposing Iran.
Iran, on its part, is not expected to be caught off guard again. It continues to bolster its defensive posture and remains hopeful for a diplomatic resolution to the nuclear issue.
Some experts believe that reaching a new nuclear agreement could significantly reduce the chances of renewed Israeli aggression. Nevertheless, both countries remain on high alert as tensions simmer and the region waits to see whether war will erupt once more.
