Nigeria’s federal government under President Bola Tinubu is projected to spend more than ₦91 trillion on debt servicing between 2023 and 2028, highlighting the growing cost of public borrowing amid persistently weak revenue performance.
The estimate is based on a review of debt service provisions in the 2023 and 2024 budgets, the 2025 Appropriation Act, and forward projections contained in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2026–2028.
Debt service obligations have risen sharply since 2023, driven by widening fiscal deficits, a rapidly expanding debt stock, and elevated interest rates. In 2023, the government budgeted ₦6.56 trillion for debt service but ended the year having spent ₦8.56 trillion, overshooting the target by about ₦2 trillion.
Looking ahead, the MTEF projects debt service of ₦15.9 trillion in 2026, rising to ₦19.8 trillion in both 2027 and 2028.
Beyond revenue shortfalls, debt servicing costs are being amplified by a rapidly expanding debt stock and high interest rates. Domestic debt has grown from ₦54.3 trillion in 2022 to ₦80.5 trillion, reflecting increased reliance on local borrowing, while external debt has risen from $41.6 billion to $46.9 billion.
Overall, Nigeria appears increasingly locked into a fiscal structure where debt service grows faster than revenue, limiting the government’s ability to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, education, and other productivity-enhancing sectors.
