Awwal Jubril, a power sector analyst, has warned that Nigeria’s chronic electricity shortages stem from decades of underinvestment in infrastructure, coupled with an overcentralized transmission system.
He stressed that the country’s single national grid amplifies outages, as faults in one region ripple across the entire network, leaving millions without power. According to Jubril, allowing each region to manage its own transmission capacity is key to reducing blackouts, improving reliability, and matching supply with rising local demand.
Speaking during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM in Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, on Thursday, Jubril emphasized that systemic neglect has created structural deficits across the generation, transmission, and distribution segments.
“Unbundling the TCN is the most critical thing we need to do. Let each region have its own transmission capacity. We cannot continue with a single circuit national grid where a problem in Sokoto or Maiduguri affects Lagos, Ijebu, or anywhere else. That is why we are suffering,”
“Notwithstanding, as you lay your bed, so shall you lie on it, is a common adage. We are lying on the bed the way we have lived our bed. And the simple, straightforward meaning of that to a layman is that we did not invest in the power sector, so we cannot expect to reap what we did not sow. That’s just a summary of all the challenges we are having in the power sector,” he added.
Recall that Nigeria is currently navigating a severe deepening of its chronic power crisis, characterized by widespread blackouts and a sharp decline in electricity generation to approximately 3,700–4,000 Megawatts (MW) for a population exceeding 235 million. As of late March 2026, the situation remains critical due to a combination of fuel shortages and systemic financial instability.
Jubril explained that population growth and urban expansion have significantly increased electricity demand, yet infrastructure development has failed to keep pace. “ Twenty years ago, the number of households in Ilese, Ikoto, Oke Owa, and other areas was far less than today. Now, can we compare the number of transformers in these communities to the expansion we have experienced? Some of the poles and wires you see have been there for 20, 30 years. Who has come to replace them? That is the challenge we have. Population is expanding, power demand is increasing, yet infrastructure remains stagnant.”
He added that household consumption patterns have evolved, with residents now using multiple electrical appliances compared to a single fan decades ago. “Somebody that was using one fan many years ago now has two or three fans. The same transformer remains in the community. More houses have been built. Lack of investment is what is killing us. It is cutting across all sectors.”
Generation, Transmission, and Distribution: The Gaps
Jubril broke down the three principal segments of Nigeria’s power sector. “The generator, which is like the generator in your house, the wire that brings power into your house—that is transmission, the TCN. When it comes into your house, the gadgets you use to distribute the electricity—that is the discos. In our communities, the generator we used many years ago remains the same, the transmission wires remain the same, and the energy need has increased. That is the challenge we have. ”
He highlighted the technical limitations inherent in the national grid system. “Nigeria operates a single circuit. If one component fails in Sokoto or Maiduguri, it affects everyone, even people in Calabar. When the national grid collapses, everyone feels it. That is a major structural flaw that amplifies power outages.”
Jubril also noted that energy losses occur during transmission, meaning that the power generated at plants never fully reaches the end users. “ If you generate 4,000 megawatts, the end user does not get 4,000. Transmission losses and inefficiencies mean only a fraction is eventually commercialized. That is why commercial arrangements like band A, band B, and band C exist. They are designed to account for energy lost along the line, though most Nigerians do not realize it.”
Siemens Mobile Transformers: Temporary Relief
The power enthusiast highlighted the Siemens project, which proposes the deployment of mobile, containerized transformers to quickly boost electricity supply without new generation stations. “They can increase our power supply to 10,000 megawatts in six months without building new generation stations. These mobile transformers can be deployed to areas with shortages and effectively boost supply quickly. It is a quick fix, and it will help, but it is not a long-term solution.”
He explained that the lack of infrastructure, especially substations, limits the effectiveness of new power initiatives. “For instance, power reaching Ijebu-ode comes from Shagamu. The line is insufficient for the entire community, so what do you expect? Blackouts will continue unless distribution networks are upgraded.”
Discos: Privatisation Fiasco
Jubril was scathing in his assessment of Nigeria’s distribution companies. “The discos and the privatisation of the distribution element of our power sector is a fiasco. It is a total failure. They are supposed to invest; they do not invest, yet they want to reap. Where do you get a person that wants to reap without sowing? That is what we have in Nigeria.”
He described how discos leave communities to bear the brunt of technical failures. “If a transformer fails in your community, you are the one fixing it. Discos like Ibadan Disco are not recruiting technical personnel; they are only recruiting marketers to collect money. There is no technical intervention. It is the honest truth.”
Transmission: An Expensive Bottleneck
Jubril noted that transmission is an expensive and capital-intensive segment of the power sector. “Building transmission networks is very expensive. Nigerian banks and financial institutions are not prepared to fund long-term projects that take a decade to recoup. Only the government can step in, which is why international development agencies such as the World Bank, African Development Bank, and Japan are involved.”
He stressed the importance of separating transmission from construction responsibilities within the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). “Currently, TCN is responsible for both transmitting power and building infrastructure. This is inefficient. Separate construction from transmission, let the TCN focus on the grid, and let other entities handle building new power assets. This is the way forward.”
GAMCO: A Game-Changer in the Making
Jubril welcomed the creation of Grid Asset Management Company Limited (GAMCO), an initiative designed to localize transmission within specific corridors such as Lagos-Benin. “Instead of sending all power through Osogbo, they can now keep it local to Lagos, Ogun, and Benin. This experiment is promising because it unbundles transmission from a national single circuit system. If it works, it can be replicated across other corridors.”
He explained that GAMCO’s success depends on proper planning and regional investment. “They have set up a committee chaired by Femi Gbajabiamila, with members including Umahi, the Aviation Minister, Keyamo, Bosun Tijani, Finance Minister Wale Edun, and energy law experts like Professor Yemi Oke from the University of Lagos. The technical element is now being developed, but it will take time.”
The Role of State Governments
Jubril urged proactive state government involvement in the power sector. “State governments, especially in the Southwest corridor—Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun—should come together, inject funds, and partner with technical experts to establish functional discos. Lagos is doing well, but others are still only making paperwork and law, not real investment.”
He highlighted the limitations of current discos in providing adequate service. “Ibadan Disco does not have the money or technical expertise. They cannot improve supply, but state governments can step in, buy assets, bring in technical partners, and invest. That is the way forward.”
Private Sector Participation
Jubril pointed to private companies, including Chinese investors, as positive developments in distribution. “Some private companies are coming into distribution, importing equipment, building infrastructure, and selling power. The energy may be more expensive, but at least it is available. State governments can support these initiatives to expand service delivery.”
He emphasized that sustainable solutions require both government oversight and private sector engagement. “If discos cannot invest, state governments and private investors must fill the gap. This is the only way Nigerians will see real improvement.”
Band A, Band B: A Misleading Solution
Jubril criticized the use of banded tariffs as a method of addressing power deficits. “Band A, Band B, Band C is a way to defraud Nigerians. It does not solve technical or infrastructure problems. These schemes are commercial mechanisms to account for losses, not real solutions to the lack of power.”
Regulatory Agencies: Limited Influence
He acknowledged the role of state regulatory agencies but argued that their power is limited. “Some states are putting up electricity regulation commissions, but they cannot generate, transmit, or distribute power. They can only regulate what exists, and often there is nothing to regulate. These agencies are under immense pressure and have little impact on actual supply.”
Accountability: Who is Responsible?
Jubril placed primary responsibility on the federal government. “Power remains largely controlled by the national government. While deregulation exists on paper, the indices necessary for functional electricity supply remain in federal hands. State governments can be proactive, but the national government sets the pace.”
He recalled past attempts to improve discos under former Minister Babatunde Fashola. “Fashola proposed injecting funds into Ibadan Disco for investment. The owners withdrew their capital and replaced it with government money. The problem persists. This is why proactive state government intervention is critical.”
Even Jesus and Mohammed Cannot Solve the Power Crisis – On the Minister
Jubril did not hold back in critiquing the current Minister of Power, Dr. Adelabu, saying that systemic issues in Nigeria’s electricity sector go far beyond any individual’s capacity to solve. “Even Jesus and Mohammed cannot solve the power crisis in Nigeria if the structure remains the same,” he said, underscoring the deep-seated nature of the challenges facing the sector.
On Wednesday, The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, apologized for the outages and promised supply improvements within two weeks through intensified efforts to resolve gas constraints.
Speaking in Abuja, Adelabu described the situation as temporary, attributing it to dry season conditions and ongoing gas supply challenges affecting power generation.
The minister also expressed confidence that Nigeria will achieve a 6,000 megawatts power target before the end of the year.
He explained that the Minister, despite good intentions, is hampered by decades of underinvestment, inefficient discos, and transmission bottlenecks. “You can have the best minister, but if the transmission lines are decades old, discos refuse to invest, and the national grid remains a single circuit, there is nothing anyone can do. Even the most capable leader will struggle under these conditions,” Jubril added.
The power enthusiast used this statement to emphasize the need for structural reforms rather than relying on leadership charisma. “We cannot expect miracles. The solution lies in unbundling TCN, empowering states, encouraging private technical investment, and building infrastructure that matches our current demand. Without these, no minister, no matter how skilled, can deliver sustained electricity to Nigerians.”
Challenges of Private Investment
Highlighting the experience of private investors, Jubril noted that financial returns are hampered by inefficient discos. “Otedola invested in Geregu. After generating power, he had to wait for discos to collect money before being paid. He exited the sector and moved his funds elsewhere. This shows that investment without proper collection and infrastructure is not sustainable.”
The Road Ahead: Long-Term Solutions
Jubril concluded that the path to reliable electricity in Nigeria requires long-term structural reform. “Separate transmission from construction. Localize power corridors. Encourage state government participation. Bring private technical partners into the sector. Address inefficiencies in discos. Only then can we hope for sustainable power delivery.”
He remained skeptical about short-term improvements. “If the President says he wants to campaign with power for 2027, he is dead on arrival. Two weeks, three weeks, or even banded tariffs will not solve the systemic challenges. The solution is long-term investment, structural reform, and proactive governance.”
A Collaborative Imperative
For Jubril, the solution lies in collaboration across all levels of government and the private sector. “State governments, national agencies, and private investors must work together. Lagos has shown that it can be done, but other states must step up. Nigerians deserve reliable electricity, and it is achievable if we invest in infrastructure, technology, and people.”
