Convener of the Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Victor Udoh, has warned that Nigeria’s ambition to raise crude oil production to meet both its OPEC quota and 2026 budget benchmark will remain unattainable unless security and community-related challenges in the Niger Delta are decisively addressed.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Sunday, Udoh said Nigeria’s current oil output, which has averaged about 1.4 million barrels per day in recent months, still falls short of expectations, noting that even recent figures recorded a marginal decline.
“If we look at the month-on-month reality of November and December, we had about a 14,000-barrel shortfall from what we recorded in November last year,” he said. “Those figures are still slightly below the original OPEC quota allocation of about 1.5 million barrels per day.”
Udoh explained that while Nigeria can sometimes record production levels of up to 1.8 million barrels per day when condensates are included, the country’s official targets remain highly ambitious.
“The 2026 budget of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is pegged at 1.84 million barrels per day, while the OPEC quota for Nigeria is 1.5 million barrels per day,” he noted. “So it appears Nigeria is ambitious about exceeding its OPEC quota.”
He expressed confidence in the leadership of the upstream petroleum sector, citing the pedigree of the current leadership.
“If you look at the antecedents of the person brought in charge of the upstream sector, right from her days at the NNPC, she has always been ambitious in planning, and that gives us confidence that with the right policy framework and predictable regulations, we can attract more direct foreign investment,” Udoh said.
He welcomed ongoing reforms, including plans to reallocate oil wells and revive exploration in previously dormant areas.
“The intention to reallocate or sell wells is very beautiful. The intention to reactivate exploration in the Ogoni axis, which has been silent for a very long time, is also very beautiful,” he said.
However, Udoh cautioned that strong policies alone would not automatically translate into higher output, stressing the importance of what he described as “intervening and extraneous variables.”
“Policies, political will and good decisions are the costs, and the intended effect is improved output. But before this transition happens, there are always intervening and extraneous variables,” he explained. “In Nigeria, the intervening variables are what happens in the Niger Delta environment, while the extraneous variables relate to how effective security guarantees are in ensuring that what is produced upstream can be transported for processing or export.”
According to him, oil output cannot be measured in a “straight-line” relationship with policy intent.
“That is why you cannot ignore the intervening and extraneous variables in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector,” Udoh said.
On what more needs to be done to meet production targets, he pointed to recent gains from non-conventional security approaches.
“There is a non-conventional approach to securing pipelines that has worked in the last two years — what we refer to as pipeline surveillance,” he said.
Udoh also highlighted President Bola Tinubu’s engagement with oil-producing communities, particularly in Ogoniland.
“Instead of deploying more soldiers or introducing more policies, the president decided to engage the Ogoni people. He gave them a university and expanded consultations,” he said. “Private-sector-driven surveillance also engaged more locals, brought more people into the conversation, and that helped to soften tensions.”
He outlined two key steps he believes are critical going forward.
“First, enhance the surveillance structure in the Niger Delta. Second, allow the Petroleum Industry Act provision that guarantees three per cent to host communities to flow fully,” Udoh said.
He further linked recent security policy changes to the protection of oil infrastructure.
“There was a deliberate government statement last year that VIP protection should be taken away from the police and given to the Civil Defence Corps, whose original mandate is the protection of critical national infrastructure, including oil and gas,” he said.
Udoh argued that this shift places greater responsibility on private companies operating in the sector.
“If this decision stands, then the bulk of responsibility for protecting oil and gas infrastructure falls on private companies, and they must consolidate trust in the Niger Delta, build a predictable environment, and ensure that government policies translate into real output,” he added.
He concluded that without sustained security, community buy-in and effective implementation of reforms, Nigeria’s oil production targets would remain difficult to achieve.
