Former Kaduna Central Senator, Shehu Sani, has said political survival, electoral calculations and the interests of their states are behind the growing support for President Bola Tinubu by some opposition governors ahead of the 2027 general elections.
His comments came as Cross-party alliances are reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape as prominent opposition governors recalibrate their stances toward President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Following localized electoral victories and geopolitical shifts, key figures including newly re-elected Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke, Abia State Governor Alex Otti, and Anambra State Governor Charles Soludo have explicitly clarified their political dynamics with the central government.
Sani said governors such as Ademola Adeleke of Osun State, Charles Soludo of Anambra State and Alex Otti of Abia State had assessed their political options and considered cooperation with the Federal Government more beneficial to their states.
The former lawmaker made this known on Tuesday while speaking as a guest on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, where he said political actors must consider both their immediate interests and their long-term political ambitions when making decisions.
“if you are a politician, you look at both sides of what will be better for your present and also for your future. And strategically, what will also be easier for your people. These opposition governors, like Otti of Labour , Soludo of APGA, and Adeleke of Accord, they have weighed the two options, and they have seen that they are safer and better identifying with Asiwaju, not for anything, but there is no credible and viable alternative to him. If Soludo cannot identify with Atiku, because Atiku has no support in his state, and he also cannot identify with Peter Obi, because he knew the limitations of Peter Obi is only within South-East, and he does not want to cage himself to that. And Peter Obi is also not a member of his own party.
But you can see also that Tinubu is not a member of his own party. But he looks at the wider acceptability in terms of the whole country. For Adeleke, he knew very well that, now he has over 500,000 votes, and the opposition governor with 444,000 votes” Sani said.
According to him, the opposition governors had weighed the available political options and concluded that identifying with Tinubu was a safer strategy.
Sani said the decision was not necessarily an indication that the governors believed Tinubu had delivered everything they expected from his administration.
He argued that the governors were more concerned about positioning their states within the national political structure and securing access to the Federal Government.
“They have weighed the two options, and they have seen that they are safer and better identifying with Asiwaju,” he said.
Sani said Soludo, for instance, could not easily identify with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar because of what he described as Atiku’s limited support in Anambra State.
He also said Soludo would not want to completely align himself with Peter Obi, whose political influence, according to him, remains strongest in the South-East.
Sani said Soludo was instead looking beyond the South-East and seeking to position Anambra within the broader Nigerian political space.
He knew that, despite the electorate did not vote for APC Candidate in the state, they have seen that it is the better option for them to vote for Aswaju. So, he is contested under Accord, but on the presidential level, he knew that the people in the state would vote for Asiwaju. So, as for Alex Otti, Peter has gone out of his party, and has gone to another party. So, that element that you left me, and you are in another place. And secondly, is that even if Abia voted for Peter, Peter is most likely to win the South-Eastern part of Nigeria. But what is the ranking of Peter in North-West, North-Central, North-East, South-South, and South-Western part of Nigeria?
“So, he is taking Abia to the mainstream. So, as a politician, if there is a kind of political figure in the opposition, who commands the respect outside of his own zone, Atiku is only stronger in some parts of Northern states. So, if there is a stronger opposition, who is very much available, and strong in other zones that are not of his own, then that will have been a strong factor against Asiwaju Tinubu. But it is not the case. So, they don’t want to take their electoral position, and they don’t want to take a state where they will isolate their people. So, once you win your state, the next is you think of the broader goal of the people of your state in terms of the gains they can get from the center.”
“So, I believe these are some of the factors that led to their commendations. Asiwaju may not be the best of persons, will not have delivered everything they want, but there is virtually the other side of the opposition. It’s not like a Buhari kind of situation you have, where you have a Buhari from the North and Asiwaju from the South, all of them working on the same party. If you pick Atiku, who is from the North, then you ask him who is going to deliver the Southern part of Nigeria to him. Who is going to deliver the Southwest or the Southeast? He has virtually none.”
“And even the South-South, you can see the person he picked has a limited control even within his own very state. So, you pick Peter Obi, and then you say, okay, Peter Obi is delivering South. What of Kwankwasnso? He asked.
He argued that Tinubu offered that wider national reach because the President is not restricted to a particular region or political zone.
The former senator said a similar calculation could be seen in Adeleke’s relationship with Tinubu following the Osun governorship election.
He noted that although the people of Osun State voted Adeleke of the Accord Party to retain his governorship, the political situation at the presidential level could be different.
Sani said Adeleke understood that winning the governorship did not necessarily mean he could dictate how voters in the state would vote in a presidential election.
He said the governor therefore had to consider what would be in the interest of Osun State and his own political future.
“He has won his election, and Tinubu has stopped any form of interference to tamper with that,” Sani said.
He argued that Adeleke’s decision to publicly support Tinubu’s re-election should be viewed against the backdrop of the political relationship between the two leaders.
Sani said the relationship could benefit both men, particularly because Adeleke remained politically influential in Osun while Tinubu controlled the Federal Government.
“People who wanted Adeleke to be confrontational against the President, he is a politician, and he knew that very well, that despite that he has won elections, that he still has battle to fight,” he said.
The former senator said some political battles could not be fought by ordinary supporters on the streets but required the direct involvement of the politicians themselves.
He also pointed to the Federal Government’s intervention in the controversy surrounding the freezing of the Osun State Government’s account by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.
According to him, Tinubu’s role in the matter demonstrated why Adeleke could not afford to completely sever his relationship with the President.
Sani said the relationship between the two politicians was therefore based on mutual political interests.
He said, “Adeleke needs Tinubu. Tinubu needs Adeleke.”
The former lawmaker maintained that political calculations often override ideological differences in Nigeria.
He said elected officials must first secure their political positions before they can implement their policies and programmes.
“If you are a politician, before you think of any policy or programme, you first of all have to think of winning an election and remaining on your seat because politics is the vehicle to other things,” he said.
Sani stressed that political survival remained central to the behaviour of elected officials.
“You must secure your seat first. You must secure your state first before you think of the next thing to do,” he added.
He argued that political competence alone could not guarantee electoral success without an understanding of Nigeria’s political structure.
“You can be the most competent person in Nigeria, you can be the best person in Nigeria, but you have to go through the political ritual for you to assume political office,” Sani said.
He added that politicians must understand their political equations and make decisions based on both present realities and future ambitions.
Sani’s comments come amid increasing political realignments ahead of the 2027 elections, with opposition politicians increasingly reassessing their relationships with Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress.
He said the emerging relationships should therefore be understood within the realities of Nigerian politics, where political alliances can shift when the interests of politicians and their constituents change.
