Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s dramatic declaration that “Subsidy is Gone,” a federal lawmaker has delivered a blunt verdict: the removal of fuel subsidy was the most patriotic act by any Nigerian president since our independence. But the social safety nets meant to cushion the poor and vulnerable are badly broken with what he called a disconnect between cause and effect.
Rt. Hon. Dennis Nnamdi Agbo (FCA), Member representing Igbo-Eze North/Udenu Federal Constituency, made the assessment in a public lecture at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka on 14 October, 2026. Titled, ‘Three Years of Post-Subsidy Removal: Evaluating the Socio-Economic Effects of Nigeria’s Deregulated Downstream Sector’, the address mixed strong defence of the reform with sharp criticism of poor delivery of palliatives.
The Shock Decision That Broke the Cabal
Agbo recalled the moment on 29TH May 2023 when Tinubu, midway through his inaugural speech, suddenly announced the end of the decades-old fuel subsidy. “The clause of declaration was not part of the speech,” the lawmaker said. “Not even a confidential secretary or staff had any idea.”
The result, he argued, was immediate: the powerful subsidy cabal was caught off-guard, smuggling collapsed, phantom consumption figures that once claimed 60 million litres a day fell to around 40 million, and the path opened for private refining. Dangote Refinery, a $45 billion investment, is now supplying the domestic consumption and exporting to the rest of the World, becoming the largest suppliers of aviaton fuel ATK, to the whole of Europe.
“The stranglehold on the nation was removed. Nigeria could breathe again,” Agbo declared.
Fiscal Windfall and Growth
The lecture painted a picture of transformed public finances. Agbo said subsidy removal alone is saving government about ₦700 billion monthly, while exchange-rate unification adds another ₦600 billion. Combined, the reforms have produced at least ₦1.3 trillion in monthly distributable revenue for the three tiers of government.
World Bank figures cited in the lecture show real GDP growth rising from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in the first half of 2026. Federation revenues grew 69% in real terms between 2023 and 2025. Federal government’s capital expenditure has been held at an impressive 70% of the budget for three consecutive years — up from 25–30% previously. This has enabled the funding of projects such as the Coastal Road, major highways across the country, and the national gas grid.
States, Agbo noted, have cleared salary and pension arrears, and launched ambitious capital programmes. Enugu State was singled out as a model: its budget ballooned from ₦167 billion in 2023 to ₦1.617 trillion in 2026; internally generated revenue jumped more than 1,000%, and capital spending consistently exceeded 80% of the budget.
The Human Cost
The lawmaker did not sugar-coat the pain. Petrol prices more than doubled in the first month after removal. Transport fares, food costs and generator expenses soared. Small businesses and low-income households bore the heaviest burden. “A lower inflation rate does not mean prices have returned to their old levels,” he cautioned. “Households whose incomes have not caught up remain under serious pressure.”
Palliatives That Missed the Mark
Agbo reserved some of his strongest language for the implementation of NG-CARES, the World Bank-supported social intervention programme. Despite hundreds of billions of naira released to states for cash transfers, public works, agric support and MSME grants, “there is still a loud cry of government neglect.”
He blamed the low enthusiasm of states, arising from a misconception of the fundng structure, for a por delivery of reliefs to te target low income groups.
The House Committee on NG-CARES has opened a full investigation under its constitutional oversight powers.
To fix the problem, Agbo announced that the committee is preparing a bill to establish a permanent NG-CARES Commission. Funding would come directly from a percentage of the reform savings, not exceeding 10%, charged to the federation’s consolidated revenue, rather than placing the financial burden on the states.
He listed other measures by the Federal government to relieve the plight of the poor to include the increase in minimum wage to ₦70,000, the NELFUND student loan scheme, CREDICORP consumer credit, accelerated CNG adoption (with Enugu’s bus fares on the Nsukka route falling from ₦3,500 to ₦1,500), rapid solar adoption, and the HOPE series of World Bank-backed programmes for health, education and governance.
International Lessons and a Permanent Social Contract
Drawing on experiences from India’s Direct Benefit Transfer and employment guarantee scheme, China’s productive poverty reduction, and Brazil’s Bolsa Família, Agbo insisted that temporary cash handouts are not enough. “Permanent reform requires permanent institutions of social protection,” he said. “A country cannot build an enduring social contract on occasional distributions alone.”
He ended with a firm declaration: “Subsidy is gone, and gone for good!” The last three years, he concluded, have been a period of sacrifice, resistance from vested interests, and hard-won progress. There will be no return to the old system.
The lecture, delivered to an academic audience at the Premier University in the heart of the South-East, is expected to fuel national debate as lawmakers prepare the new social intervention bill and as households continue to feel both the gains and the lingering pains of Nigeria’s most consequential economic reform in our generation.
